Introduction

Recently I read an interesting paper in System Dynamics Review (Malczynski and Lane, 2022) regarding an exchange between Isaac Asimov and Jay W. Forrester. Asimov, the well-known scientist and science fiction writer, needs no introduction. Forrester was, among other things, the founder of the field of system dynamics, a computer modeling technique that first became widely-known when it was used in the Limits to Growth Study of the early 1970s. System dynamics or SD, as it is known, is one of many computer modeling techniques that can be used to better understand complex problems facing society, now and in the future, and how those problems might be addressed. Because it can be used to examine future trends and possibilities, SD has been compared to the fictional field of psychohistory which was created by Asimov in his Foundation series of novels. Asimov and Forrester were contemporaries, and both lived and worked in the Boston area. There is some speculation as to their influence on one another… a subject covered in the System Dynamics Review paper. The paper mostly discussed the two men, potential cross influences, and the idea of planning for the future with psychohistory (fiction) or system dynamics (real).

The Three Laws and the Zeroth Law

Asimov’s three laws of robotics are, of course, also mentioned in that System Dynamics Review paper. These laws are a fundament al part of Asimov’s science fiction legacy and have received wide discussion over the years. The three laws were not a part of the original, three volume Foundation* Series, which was written in the early 1950s, even though the three laws were first mentioned by Asimov in 1943 in the short story “Runaround”. The Foundation series, as originally written, has no robots and no laws of robotics. However, Asimov’s subsequent prequels (Prelude to Foundation 1988, Forward the Foundation 1993) and sequels (Foundations Edge 1982, Foundation and Earth 1983) added robots after the fact… and thereby subtly altered the plot of the original Foundation novels. One of the interesting related additions is the concept of the zeroth law of robotics.

The Zeroth Law of Robotics is not as widely known as the Three Laws. It was introduced by Asimov’s robotic characters in Robots and Empire published in 1985. Over the course of decades, it became a more fundamental component of the plots of Asimov’s novels. The Zeroth law: “A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm” is necessary to assist robots who are attempting to guide the course of humanity over millennia. The zeroth law and the field of psychohistory are intimately linked. The character Hari Seldon’s psychohistory was seen, by Asimov’s robotic characters, as a tool that humaniform robots hoped would assist them in applying the zeroth law. Interestingly, the guidance of humanity by humaniform robots required that the robots remain anonymous. This parallels the idea that the tool of psychohistory had to be applied without the knowledge of “humanity”… otherwise humans might be influenced to change their behavior and invalidate the plan’s projections and usefulness.

Foundation and Reality

System dynamics modeling, and similar computer modeling approaches, are used to better understand and manage complex problems/situations. Some models look at long-term problems, such as climate change, and can envision potential solutions. Like the fictitious field of psychohistory, computer modeling can even be thought of as tools for managing the future. However, it is unlikely that a single all-encompassing model would ever be a realistic approach. Also unlikely is the idea that planning of the future will be done, or can be done, by a small group in secret! More likely is a scenario similar to that depicted by Kim Stanley Robinson in his recent book, The Ministry for the Future , where many international agencies attempt to cooperate to find possible paths forward.

*In Asimov’s writing the Foundation is a clandestine organization attempting to adjust humanity’s paths to the future indirectly and unnoticed via the use of a mathematical model that can predict general trends.

Note: My guidelines for reading Asimov’s Foundation and related books can be seen at: https://earth01.net/RGDudley/SF/SFnotes.html

Literature cited

Malczynski, L.A., Lane, D.C., 2022. Sublime reason: When Isaac Asimov met Jay Forrester. System Dynamics Review. 39, 64-79.