******************************************************** .Logban final for sdr 04-02-26 ********************************************************~ This model accompanies a paper published in System Dynamics Review (2004) entitled: "Modeling The Effects of a Log Export Ban in Indonesia" by Richard G. Dudley Several "views" are provided. One of these provides comments about the model. Comments/descriptions are also included with each model component. | amount of timber cut per year= HA AVAILABLE*harvesting ~ m3/Year ~ The actual harvest given the per ha harvest and the number of ha of forest \ available | effect of stock ratio on loss of forest( [(0,0)-(0.6,1)],(0,1),(0.00988235,0.701068),(0.0211765,0.587189),(0.0494118,0.462633\ ),(0.0974118,0.348754),(0.172235,0.224199),(0.223059,0.174377),(0.282353,0.131673),\ (0.389647,0.0569395),(0.5,0)) ~ 1/Year ~ Lookup function showing the relation between the density of forest cover \ and the rate at which forested land is converted to other uses. As forest \ cover is lost the fraction converted will increase \!stock \ ratio\!fractional annual loss | initial ha= 1e+006 ~ ha [0,1.5e+006,100000] ~ | losing ha from forest= loss of land effect*HA AVAILABLE*effect of stock ratio on loss of forest(stock ratio\ ) ~ ha/Year ~ Rate that forest land is lost by conversion to other uses. | loss of land effect= 0 ~ Dmnl [0,1,1] ~ Effect to turn on and off the effect of losing forest land to non-forest \ uses. Default 0 is no loss of forest land when forest gets degraded. | max timber harvest per year= (availability of trees for harvest*HA AVAILABLE)/years to harvest remaining timber ~ m3/Year ~ Harvest rate if all timber were to be harvested without regard for \ profitability | years to harvest remaining timber= 5 ~ Year [0.5,12,0.5] ~ Expected years needed to harvest all remaining timber if that were the \ goal. At some point logging bosses will realize that timber is limited \ and will avoid over hiring logging teams. Logging teams will be limited \ by perceived available timber rather than only by potential profits. | ******************************************************** .Logban working SDR rev 03-08-13 D ********************************************************~ This is the same as the submitted version except that "harvesting" has \ been specifically inserted into the log supply loop. Outputs should be \ the same as the original model as submitted. BUT also effects of avail on \ logging costs has been inverted. Outputs matches the submitted version \ with very minor exceptions. THIS VERSION: Working to rectify blow-up if \ demand ramped up. . APPROACH By altering way in which desired logging \ teams are determined when forest is disappearing | changing due to ceiling price= MIN(0,(price of alternate sources-Current Domestic Log Purchase Price)/TIME TO CHANGE PURCHASE PRICE\ ) ~ $/(m3*Year) [0,500,10] ~ | relative availability of trees for harvest= availability of trees for harvest/initial stock ~ Dmnl ~ Measure of the total availability of trees for harvest | price of alternate sources= 250 ~ $/m3 ~ | type of effect= IF THEN ELSE(effect switch=1, EXPORT BAN EFFECT step, EXPORT BAN EFFECT ramp) ~ Dmnl ~ Part of switch to change from step to ramp implementation of a ban | EXPORT BAN EFFECT ramp= 1+RAMP((-ramp ban effect*effect of export price on ban effectiveness), 2001.75,2002.25\ ) + RAMP((ramp ban effect*effect of export price on ban effectiveness ), 2006.75,2007.25) ~ Dmnl ~ The effect that an export ban will have on exports 0 is fully \ effective..... 1 is no effect. Note fully effective is not possible .... \ creates zero values in calculations in current formulation. To create \ export ban effect for five years use the value: 1+step(-0.99, 15) + \ step(0.99, 20) | ramp length= 0.5 ~ Year [0,2,0.25] ~ Years overwhich ban would occur if ramped. | ramp ban effect= BAN EFFECT/ramp length ~ 1/Year ~ ban effect (slope) for ramp input. | effect switch= 0 ~ Dmnl [0,1,1] ~ Switch to allow change to step or ramp effect. Value of 1 is the step \ implementation. | fraction price change due to illegal activities= 0 ~ 1/Year [-0.1,0.1,0.01] ~ fractional change in logging costs due to illegality per year during ramp \ down for x years. For esample -0.03 would be a yearly decrease of three \ percent. The default number of years is 5 starting in 1998. | END YEAR= 1 ~ Year ~ | FINAL YEAR= 1 ~ Year ~ | total amount of timber= HA AVAILABLE*M3 Currently on each ha of Forest Land ~ m3 ~ | illegal logging effect= IF THEN ELSE(ON OFF illegal logging=1, EFFECT OF ILLEGAL ARRANGEMENTS ON LOGGING COSTS\ , 1) ~ Dmnl ~ | ON OFF illegal logging= 0 ~ Dmnl [0,1,1] ~ A value of 1 turns on the illegal logging effect. Note that fraction \ price change due to illegal logging must also be activated. | total employment= logging employment+milling employment ~ person ~ | effect of export price on ban effectiveness= IF THEN ELSE(ON OFF for price effect=1, price vs ban effectiveness LK(export price ratio\ ), 1) ~ Dmnl ~ If export price becomes high in relation to the domestic price then the \ ban becomes less effective as people find ways to avoid it. This feedback \ loop allows for this effect when the switch is on. | normal profitability of logging= 25 ~ $/m3 ~ | ON OFF for price effect= 0 ~ Dmnl [0,1,1] ~ This switch turns on the feedback effect of export price on ban \ effectiveness. Zero is the default (off) value. | price vs ban effectiveness LK( [(0,0)-(3,1)],(0,1),(1,1),(1.49647,0.907473),(1.87765,0.782918),(2.20941,0.651246),(\ 2.61882,0.437722),(3,0.2)) ~ Dmnl ~ look up to determine the effect of price on ban effectiveness. Also \ controlled by an on/off switch. \!export price ratio\!effect on ban \ effectivenessDmnl | ******************************************************** .Logban working 30 jan 03 ********************************************************~ Start of revisions for pub. | LOG SUPPLY SMOOTH TIME= 0.25 ~ Year [0,2,0.25] ~ smooth time for determining the current supply of logs | DESIRED CAPACITY SMOOTH TIME= 0.5 ~ Year [0.25,2,0.25] ~ Time over with the effect of changing profitability is taken into account. | DESIRED TEAM SMOOTH TIME= 0.5 ~ Year [0.25,2,0.25] ~ Smooth time for figuring the needed logging team size. | REPLACEMENT TEAM SMOOTH TIME= 1 ~ Year ~ Time over which team repalcement needs are averaged | NORMAL SUPPLY SMOOTH TIME= 5 ~ Year [1,10,1] ~ Number of years taken into account when determining what is considered a \ normal supply of logs | REPLACEMENT MILL SMOOTH TIME= 1 ~ Year ~ Averaging time for determing amount of replacement mills. | BAN EFFECT= 0 ~ Dmnl [0,0.9,0.1] ~ 0=no effect, numbers between 0 and .99 allow pecentage effectiveness of a \ log export ban. | ******************************************************** .Lban revised version of 2 jan 02 ********************************************************~ This model accompanys a paper presented at the The Twentieth International \ Conference of the System Dynamics Society (July 28 - August 1, 2002) held \ in Palermo, Italy. "An Application of System Dynamics Modeling to The \ Question of a Log Export Ban for Indonesia with Comments on Illegal \ Logging" by Richard G. Dudley | EFFECT OF ILLEGAL ARRANGEMENTS ON LOGGING COSTS= 1+RAMP(fraction price change due to illegal activities, 1997, 2002) ~ Dmnl ~ Fractional effect of illegal arrangements on logging costs. Normally \ illegal arrangements will lower logging costs. | logging employment= projected amount of timber cut per year/m3 cut per person per year ~ person ~ numbers of workers needed for log harvest at a given point in time | m3 cut per person per year= 141 ~ m3/person/Year ~ Harvest per person per year. Based on data from Obidzinski | m3 processed per person per year= 244 ~ m3/person/Year ~ Amount of wood processed by one mill worker per year based on data from \ Obidzinski. | milling employment= adjusted demand/m3 processed per person per year ~ person ~ | ******************************************************** .Cbx2! ********************************************************~ Preliminary model of forestry sector showing domestic and foreign demand, \ effect of demand on pricing, effects on log harvest capacity (logging \ teams), effects on forest. | Supply of Logs= SMOOTH(amount of timber cut per year, LOG SUPPLY SMOOTH TIME) ~ m3/Year ~ Supply of logs coming out of the forest | HA AVAILABLE= INTEG ( -losing ha from forest, initial ha) ~ ha [0,1e+006,100000] ~ Total hactares of forest land available for harvest | EXPORT BAN EFFECT step= 1+step(-BAN EFFECT*effect of export price on ban effectiveness, 2002) + step(BAN EFFECT\ *effect of export price on ban effectiveness , 2007) ~ Dmnl ~ The effect that an export ban will have on exports 0 is fully \ effective..... 1 is no effect. Note fully effective is not possible .... \ creates zero values in calculations in current formulation. To create \ export ban effect for five years use the value: 1+step(-0.99, 15) + \ step(0.99, 20) | Logging Teams Desired= SMOOTH(MIN(max timber harvest per year, Logging Teams*effect of relative profitability on desired logging teams\ (relative profitability of logging)) , DESIRED TEAM SMOOTH TIME) ~ m3/Year ~ The number of logging teams (capacity) needed, given the current level of \ profitability. | desired mill log price= Current Domestic Log Purchase Price*effect of demand on purchase price(relative log demand\ ) ~ $/m3 ~ Price the mills expect to pay for logs based on their need to provide the \ mills with logs | costs of logging etc= illegal logging effect*NOMINAL LOGGING COSTS*effect of availability on logging costs\ (1/relative availability of trees for harvest ) ~ $/m3 ~ Given costs of carrying out logging | Current Domestic Log Purchase Price= INTEG ( changing field price+changing price from demand+changing price from foreign demand+changing due to ceiling price\ , 50) ~ $/m3 ~ Current price paid per cubic meter for logs | availability of trees for harvest= M3 Currently on each ha of Forest Land ~ m3/ha ~ Measure of the total availability of trees for harvest | log exports= Supply of Logs*effect of pricing on amount exported(export price ratio)*type of effect ~ m3/Year ~ Amount of logs exported. | decreasing logging teams= max(Logging Teams/END YEAR, Logging Teams/LOGGING TEAM LIFETIME) ~ m3/(Year*Year) ~ Rate at which timber harvesting capacity decreases. | harvesting= MIN(M3 Currently on each ha of Forest Land/FINAL YEAR,projected continuous amount cut per ha\ ) ~ m3/ha/Year ~ Timber actually cut given the desited cut and the actual limitations. | relative profitability of logging= potential profit from log harvest/normal profitability of logging ~ Dmnl ~ The profitability of timber harvest compared to normal timber harvest \ profitability | desired mill capacity= SMOOTH( Wood Processing Capacity*effect of relative product profitability on desired mill capacity\ (relative profitability of products ), DESIRED CAPACITY SMOOTH TIME) ~ m3/Year ~ Amount of capacity needed. | building mills= max(0,(change in mill capacity needed/TIME NEEDED TO BUILD MILLS) + SMOOTH(scrapping mills\ , REPLACEMENT MILL SMOOTH TIME)) ~ m3/Year/Year ~ Rate at which new capacity is added. | adjusted normal supply= SMOOTHI(Supply of Logs, NORMAL SUPPLY SMOOTH TIME, NORMAL SUPPLY) ~ m3/Year ~ Typical supply levels over the past few years | increasing logging teams= max(0, (((Logging Teams Desired-Logging Teams)/TIME NEEDED TO INCREASE TEAMS)+SMOOTH\ (decreasing logging teams, REPLACEMENT TEAM SMOOTH TIME))) ~ m3/Year/Year ~ Rate at which logging capacity increases. | relative export demand= Foreign Demand for Indonesian Logs/log exports ~ Dmnl ~ | effect that export fraction has on the effect of export price= effect of export fraction on foreign price effect*fraction of supply exported ~ Dmnl ~ The actual amount of foreign exports will have an impact on how important \ the export price is in determining the domestic log price. | relative supply= Supply of Logs/adjusted normal supply ~ Dmnl ~ The relative abundance of logs on the market. | NORMAL SUPPLY= 3e+006 ~ m3/Year ~ | fraction of supply exported= log exports/Supply of Logs ~ Dmnl ~ Fraction of logs that are actually exported | domestic log supply= Supply of Logs-log exports ~ m3/Year ~ Supply of logs reaching the domestic market | Wood Processing Capacity= INTEG ( building mills-scrapping mills, domestic log supply) ~ m3/Year ~ Amount of wood processing facilities such as saw mills. It may be \ necessary to have different models for different aspects of the \ industry..... saw mills, papermills, plywood mills. | effect of export fraction on foreign price effect= 1 ~ Dmnl ~ Function showing the effect the fraction exported has on the effect that \ export price will have on domestic price. As a starting point this is \ assumed to be directly proportional to the fraction of logs exported. | foreign domestic price difference= (Current Log Export Price-Current Domestic Log Purchase Price)*effect that export fraction has on the effect of export price ~ $/m3 ~ The difference between current price and export price modified by the \ fractionof logs exported. For example, if exports are very low then the \ export price will have little effect. | FOREIGN PRICE CHANGE DELAY= 0.25 ~ Year ~ | demand difference= adjusted demand-Domestic Demand for Logs ~ m3/Year ~ Change needed in demand to match desired demand. | changing price from foreign demand= foreign domestic price difference/FOREIGN PRICE CHANGE DELAY ~ $/(m3*Year) ~ Changes to domestic purchase price caused by changes in the prices \ exporters would like to have. | relative log demand= (Domestic Demand for Logs)/domestic log supply ~ Dmnl ~ Comparison of total log demand to current log supply. | revised purchase price of logs= Current Domestic Log Purchase Price*effect of relative supply on price(relative supply\ ) ~ $/m3 ~ The price timber suppliers expect for logs after the effect of existing \ log supply is taken into account. | profit margin due to log price= MARKET PRICE OF WOOD PRODUCTS-Current Domestic Log Purchase Price ~ $/m3 ~ | changing price from demand= mill price difference/PRICE CHANGE DELAY ~ $/(m3*Year) ~ Changes to domestic purchase price caused by changes in the prices \ domestic log buyers would like to have. | export price ratio= Current Log Export Price/Current Domestic Log Purchase Price ~ Dmnl ~ a comparison of the current export price to the current domestic price | mill price difference= (desired mill log price)-Current Domestic Log Purchase Price ~ $/m3 ~ Difference between the current price and the desired price that mills want \ to pay. | adjusted log export price= NORMAL EXPORT PRICE*effect of export demand on export price ~ $/m3 ~ Export price after adjustment for changes in demand | foreign demand gap= foreign demand adjusted for price-Foreign Demand for Indonesian Logs ~ m3/Year ~ Difference between the revised foreign demand and the current foreign \ demand | effect of pricing on amount exported( [(0,0)-(3,1)],(0,0),(0.272941,0.0213523),(0.585882,0.124555),(0.811765,0.298932),(1,\ 0.5),(1.21412,0.679715),(1.36941,0.754448),(1.58824,0.811388),(1.95529,0.871886),(2.43529\ ,0.918149),(3,0.95)) ~ Dmnl ~ A graphical function which describes the relationship between export price \ ratio and the proportion of logs exported \!export price ratio\!proportion \ of logs exported Dmnl | BASIC FOREIGN DEMAND FOR LOGS= 1.5e+006 ~ m3/Year ~ Overall foreign demand for Indonesian logs. Note: for alternate add \ + RAMP(150000, 1998, 2008) | effect of export demand on price function( [(0,0)-(6,4)],(0,0),(0.141176,0.149466),(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(1.49647,1.2669),(2.32941,1.39502\ ),(6,1.5)) ~ Dmnl ~ A graphical function describing the effect that relative demand will have \ on the price of exported logs \!relative export demand\!effect on export \ price Dmnl | effect of export price on foreign demand= effect of price on demand function(Current Log Export Price/NORMAL EXPORT PRICE) ~ Dmnl ~ The effect that the export price has on foreign demand | changing log export price= export price difference/TIME NEEDED FOR EXP PRICE CHANGE TO BE REALIZED ~ $/m3/Year ~ changes occuring in the export price | Foreign Demand for Indonesian Logs= INTEG ( +changing foreign demand, BASIC FOREIGN DEMAND FOR LOGS) ~ m3/Year ~ | changing foreign demand= foreign demand gap/TIME NEEDED TO CHANGE FOREIGN DEMAND ~ m3/Year/Year ~ Changes in the foreign demand for Indonesian logs | Current Log Export Price= INTEG ( changing log export price, NORMAL EXPORT PRICE) ~ $/m3 ~ The price currently paid for exported logs | TIME NEEDED FOR EXP PRICE CHANGE TO BE REALIZED= 0.5 ~ Year [0,2,0.25] ~ time needed for changes in log export price to be absorbed into the system. | export price difference= adjusted log export price-Current Log Export Price ~ $/m3 ~ The difference between the adjusted export price and the current export \ price. This difference is gradually absorbed into the current export \ price. | effect of price on demand function( [(0,0)-(8,6)],(0,5),(0.150588,3.58719),(0.32,2.60498),(0.508235,1.75089),(0.724706,1.28114\ ),(1,1),(1.48706,0.854093),(1.99529,0.768683),(3,0.5),(5,0.1),(6,0)) ~ Dmnl ~ A graphical function describing the effect that relative export price will \ have on foreign log demand \!export price/ normal export price\!Effect \ on Foreign Demand Dmnl | NORMAL EXPORT PRICE= 50 ~ $/m3 [30,100,10] ~ The typical price paid for indonesian logs when they are exported. | foreign demand adjusted for price= BASIC FOREIGN DEMAND FOR LOGS*effect of export price on foreign demand ~ m3/Year ~ foreign demand after the effect of price change is taken into account | effect of export demand on export price= effect of export demand on price function(relative export demand) ~ Dmnl ~ The effect that the relative demand for exported logs has on the price of \ exported logs. | TIME NEEDED TO CHANGE FOREIGN DEMAND= 0.75 ~ Year ~ time needed for changes in demand to be realized | field price difference= revised purchase price of logs-Current Domestic Log Purchase Price ~ $/m3 ~ difference between the price that suppliers of domestic logs want after \ accounting for log supply and the current domestic purchase price | potential profit from log harvest= Current Domestic Log Purchase Price-costs of logging etc ~ $/m3 ~ Calculated potential profit from logging | changing field price= field price difference/TIME TO CHANGE PURCHASE PRICE ~ $/(m3*Year) ~ Changes to domestic purchase price caused by changes in the prices loggers \ and log sellers would like to have. | adjusted demand= demand from mills*effect of product profitability on actual mill use of logs ~ m3/Year ~ Current demand for logs by mills as modified by other factors | Logging Teams= INTEG ( +increasing logging teams-decreasing logging teams, NORMAL SUPPLY) ~ m3/Year ~ Current number of logging teams (logging capacity) This includes \ personnel, chain saws and other equipment. | function of effect that stock ratio has on regeneration rate( [(0,0)-(1,1)],(0,1),(0.134557,0.97807),(0.223242,0.95614),(0.327217,0.925439),(0.431193\ ,0.855263),(0.538226,0.719298),(0.605505,0.52193),(0.669725,0.346491),(0.779817,0.166667\ ),(0.868502,0.0789474),(1,0),(1.1315,-0.0526316)) ~ Dmnl ~ \!stock ratio\!effect on regeneration | M3 Currently on each ha of Forest Land= INTEG ( +regeneration-harvesting, initial stock) ~ m3/ha ~ Amount of harvestable wood currently on the land in question. | stock ratio= M3 Currently on each ha of Forest Land/MAX STANDING STOCK ~ Dmnl ~ Ratio of current forest to maximum possible standing stock. | projected continuous amount cut per ha= projected amount of timber cut per year/HA AVAILABLE ~ m3/ha/Year ~ The per ha cut given the size of the forest available for cutting, but \ ultimately this will be limited by actual timber availability. | effect of stock ratio on regeneration= function of effect that stock ratio has on regeneration rate(stock ratio) ~ Dmnl ~ As the forest grows the existing forest starts to limit the regeneration \ rate. This is the output of a graphical function... where the input is \ the stock ratio. | initial stock= 220.76 ~ m3/ha ~ The initial standing stock in a forest. | MAX REGENERATION RATE= 0.03 ~ 1/Year [0,0.05,0.005] ~ The fastest fractional rate at which the forest can add useable biomass. | regeneration= M3 Currently on each ha of Forest Land*effect of stock ratio on regeneration*MAX REGENERATION RATE ~ m3/(Year*ha) ~ Wood being added to trees in a forest. | MAX STANDING STOCK= 350 ~ m3/ha ~ Highest standing stock possible | LIFETIME= 5 ~ Year [1,15,1] ~ Average lifetime of capacity. | change in mill capacity needed= desired mill capacity-Wood Processing Capacity ~ m3/Year ~ Amount of capacity which needs to be added to create the desired capacity. | MARKET PRICE OF WOOD PRODUCTS= 100 ~ $/m3 [0,300,25] ~ Current price of wood products in terms of $/m3 of raw material. Assumed \ here that prices are rlatively stable.... wood products can be exported. | effect of relative product profitability on desired mill capacity( [(0,0)-(2,4)],(0,0),(0.09412,0.379),(0.2447,0.654),(0.48,0.8),(0.7435,0.9),(1,1),(1.271\ ,1.253),(1.435,1.5),(1.697,2.059),(2,3)) ~ Dmnl ~ A graphical relationship showing how changes in the profitability of wood \ products might affect the desire for more capacity.\!\!relative \ profitability\! XnormalX | scrapping mills= Wood Processing Capacity/LIFETIME ~ m3/(Year*Year) ~ Rate at which capacity wears out or is retired. | demand from mills= Wood Processing Capacity ~ m3/Year ~ The demand for logs created by processing mills | effect of product profitability on actual mill use of logs= effect of relative profitability on mill operations(relative profitability of products\ ) ~ Dmnl ~ Effect that profitability of wood product manufacture has on demand for \ wood at existing mills. If profitability of manufacturing wood products \ drops then demand will also drop. If profitability increases, then demand \ will increase, but is limited by the capacity of the mills. | NORMAL PRODUCT PROFIT MARGIN= 50 ~ $/m3 [0,200,25] ~ An arbitrary standard for profitability based on m3 of raw material. | TIME NEEDED TO BUILD MILLS= 0.5 ~ Year [0.25,2,0.25] ~ Average time needed to install or build capacity | relative profitability of products= profit margin due to log price/NORMAL PRODUCT PROFIT MARGIN ~ Dmnl ~ Profitability of wood products compared to an arbitrary standard \ profitability. | projected amount of timber cut per year= Logging Teams*capacity use ~ m3/Year ~ The amount of timber cut each year is dependent on both the logging \ capacity (logging teams) and on the fraction of that capacity which is \ used, but will ultimately be limited by timber availability. | capacity use= effect of relative profitability on harvest capacity use(relative profitability of logging\ ) ~ Dmnl ~ Fraction of harvesting capacity that is actually used. | effect of relative profitability on desired logging teams( [(0,0)-(6,6)],(0,0),(0.508235,0.597865),(1,1),(1.69412,1.42349),(2.44235,1.85765),(3.34588\ ,2.26335),(4.50353,2.66904),(6,3)) ~ Dmnl ~ Relation showing how profitability of logging causes increases in the \ number of logging teams needed. \!relative profitability\!effect on \ capacity increase Dmnl | effect of availability on logging costs( [(0,0)-(10,8)],(0,0.9),(1,1),(1.345,1.08),(2,1.2),(2.87059,1.53737),(4.08,2.05),(5.15294\ ,2.61922),(6.51765,3.78648),(7.45882,4.21352),(8.70588,4.3274),(10,4.38434)) ~ Dmnl ~ A graphical function describing the relationship between the timber \ availability ratio and the effect on logging costs. Not that the in put is \ the inverse of the typically used normalized input. \!Original \ availability divided by current availability\!effect on logging costs | LOGGING TEAM LIFETIME= 0.5 ~ Year ~ Typical lifetime of given units of logging capacity. | NOMINAL LOGGING COSTS= 25 ~ $/m3 [0,100,5] ~ TYPICAL LOGGING COSTS | effect of relative profitability on harvest capacity use( [(0,0)-(4,2)],(0,0),(0.220183,0.464912),(0.5,0.8),(1,1),(1.5,1.05),(3,1.1)) ~ Dmnl ~ Function providing the fraction of harvesting capacity used at each level \ of profitability.\!relative profitability\!effect on harvest capacity use \ Dmnl | effect of relative supply on price( [(0,0)-(10,2)],(0,1.1),(0.376471,1.03915),(1,1),(2.63529,0.882562),(4.89412,0.768683\ ),(7.38824,0.669039),(10,0.6)) ~ Dmnl ~ effect of the amount of logs available on the price for which they are \ sold\!relative supply\!effect on log price | TIME TO CHANGE PURCHASE PRICE= 0.25 ~ Year [0,1,0.1] ~ Average time needed for changes in supply to become apparent.... including \ transport of logs to the mills. | TIME NEEDED TO INCREASE TEAMS= 0.5 ~ Year [0.25,2,0.25] ~ Typical time needed to increase logging capacity | changing demand= demand difference/TIME NEEDED FOR DEMAND CHANGES TO BE FELT ~ m3/(Year*Year) ~ change in the demand for logs for domestic use by the processing industry | Domestic Demand for Logs= INTEG ( changing demand, demand from mills) ~ m3/Year ~ Current demand for logs | effect of demand on purchase price( [(0,0)-(6,4)],(0,0),(0.141176,0.149466),(0.5,0.636),(1,1),(1.544,1.246),(2.512,1.427\ ),(5,1.5)) ~ Dmnl ~ Graphical relationship of the effect that demand from the mills has on the \ price of logs which they buy\!relative demand from mills\!\!effect on \ purchase price mills wish to pay | effect of relative profitability on mill operations( [(0,0)-(2,2)],(0,0),(0.235294,0.128114),(0.5,0.42),(0.649412,0.640569),(0.809412,0.839858\ ),(1,1),(1.19529,1.08185),(1.5,1.1),(2,1.1)) ~ Dmnl ~ A graphical relationship of the effect of wood product profitability on \ the use of milling capacity. For example lowered product profitability \ might lower mill operations and thus lower demand for logs. \!relative \ profitability\!effect on mill use of logs | PRICE CHANGE DELAY= 0.25 ~ Year [0,1,0.1] ~ Time needed for prices to reflect actual changes in desired price. | TIME NEEDED FOR DEMAND CHANGES TO BE FELT= 0.5 ~ Year ~ Changes in demand for wood do not have an instant effect on the log \ market. This is the time it takes for these changes to be absorbed into \ the system. | ******************************************************** .Control ********************************************************~ Simulation Control Parameters | FINAL TIME = 2055 ~ Year ~ The final time for the simulation. | INITIAL TIME = 1995 ~ Year ~ The initial time for the simulation. | SAVEPER = 0.0625 ~ Year ~ The frequency with which output is stored. | TIME STEP = 0.0078125 ~ Year ~ The time step for the simulation. | \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Title Page $192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|255-255-128|120,120 12,1,0,632,78,470,60,3,4,0,44,-1,3,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-0,Antique Olive|18|B|0-0-0 Modeling the Effects of a Log Export Ban in Indonesia 12,2,0,645,194,111,23,8,4,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|16||0-0-0 Richard G. Dudley 12,3,0,641,242,94,20,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 rgd6@cornell.edu 12,4,0,860,678,79,30,3,4,0,20,-1,3,2,0,0-0-0,255-255-0,|12|B|0-0-0 View of Model 12,5,0,1042,695,83,47,3,4,0,4,-1,3,4,0,0-0-0,255-255-0,|12||0-0-0 Some easy controls for running the model 12,6,0,959,590,217,42,3,4,0,4,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-192-128,|12||0-0-0 Click on Boxes (or use bar at lower left) to see the different views of the model. For clicking to work, the lock (upper left) must be selected. 12,7,0,861,759,80,32,3,4,0,4,-1,3,5,0,0-0-0,255-255-0,|12||0-0-0 Some notes about running the model. 12,8,0,966,400,188,23,3,4,0,1,-1,0,0,0,255-0-0,0-0-0,|12||0-0-0 Use VIEW Zoom to change magnification 12,9,0,963,472,172,39,3,4,0,1,-1,0,0,0,255-0-0,0-0-0,|12||0-0-0 best way to run model is with SyntheSim (click icon - person running with lines) 12,10,0,326,458,238,83,3,4,0,9,-1,0,0,0,255-0-0,0-0-0,|16||0-0-0 This model accompanies the paper: Modeling the Effects of a Log Export Ban in Indonesia, published in System Dynamics Review in 2004. 12,11,0,329,652,142,76,3,4,0,1,-1,0,0,0,255-0-0,0-0-0,|12||0-0-0 Both the paper and the model are significant revisions of an earlier version presented at the annual meeting of the System Dynamics Society in Palermo, Italy in 2002. \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *Main Model $192-192-192,0,Arial|11||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|120,120 1,1,279,44,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1234,2457)| 10,2,Domestic Demand for Logs,1624,800,60,42,3,3,0,4,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-192-128,|12||0-0-0 1,3,2,19,1,0,43,15,3,0,0,128-64-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1671,920)| 12,4,48,1389,791,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,5,7,2,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1521,790)| 1,6,7,4,68,0,0,22,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1432,790)| 11,7,48,1472,790,6,9,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,8,changing demand,1472,827,46,25,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,9,TIME NEEDED FOR DEMAND CHANGES TO BE FELT,1515,677,74,29,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,10,9,7,1,0,45,0,2,128,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1465,717)| 10,11,effect of relative profitability on mill operations,874,1035,57,27,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,12,11,15,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(884,968)| 10,13,demand from mills,800,888,54,27,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,14,13,30,1,0,43,16,3,0,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(930,856)| 10,15,effect of product profitability on actual mill use of logs,1002,943,94,44,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,16,15,30,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,0-192-192,|12||0-0-0,1|(1038,837)| 10,17,effect of demand on purchase price,1562,1046,70,26,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,18,17,24,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1630,1114)| 10,19,relative log demand,1673,1004,46,29,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,20,19,24,1,0,43,15,3,0,0,128-64-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1677,1090)| 10,21,demand difference,1278,711,46,26,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,22,2,21,1,0,45,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1299,784)| 1,23,21,7,1,0,43,16,3,0,0,255-160-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1367,726)| 10,24,desired mill log price,1653,1177,59,22,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,25,mill price difference,1478,1332,51,25,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,26,24,25,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,128-64-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1571,1266)| 1,27,25,227,1,0,43,14,3,64,0,128-64-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1428,1389)| 10,28,PRICE CHANGE DELAY,1648,1413,55,19,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,29,28,227,1,0,45,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1564,1413)| 10,30,adjusted demand,1108,786,56,28,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,31,30,21,1,0,43,16,3,64,0,255-160-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1164,738)| 10,32,revised purchase price of logs,890,1443,77,26,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,33,Logging Teams,1453,2412,46,34,3,3,0,4,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-128,|12||0-0-0 10,34,projected amount of timber cut per year,1028,2143,83,26,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,35,33,34,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,0-255-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1173,2565)| 10,36,potential profit from log harvest,1293,1732,68,21,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,37,36,58,1,0,43,14,3,64,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1316,1780)| 10,38,costs of logging etc,1787,1818,57,26,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,39,38,36,1,0,45,14,11,0,0,128-128-128,|14||0-0-0,1|(1466,1733)| 12,40,48,1230,2410,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,41,43,33,4,0,0,22,3,0,0,0-255-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1363,2410)| 1,42,43,40,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1274,2410)| 11,43,48,1314,2410,6,9,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,44,increasing logging teams,1314,2453,52,34,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,45,48,1644,2416,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,46,48,45,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1605,2414)| 1,47,48,33,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1531,2414)| 11,48,48,1570,2414,6,9,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,49,decreasing logging teams,1570,2457,61,34,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,50,effect of relative supply on price,757,1367,62,29,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,51,50,32,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(844,1372)| 10,52,effect of relative profitability on harvest capacity use,1155,1921,80,26,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,53,52,69,1,0,0,0,3,0,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1226,1957)| 10,54,effect of relative profitability on desired logging teams,1493,2093,82,33,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,55,54,73,1,0,0,0,3,0,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1426,2148)| 10,56,Supply of Logs,734,1727,46,29,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,57,56,67,1,0,43,16,3,0,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(730,1683)| 10,58,relative profitability of logging,1312,1896,69,42,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,59,58,73,1,0,43,14,3,65,0,0-255-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1381,2046)| 10,60,LOGGING TEAM LIFETIME,1588,2335,52,15,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,61,60,48,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1567,2369)| 1,62,33,49,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1495,2477)| 1,63,58,69,1,0,43,16,3,0,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1287,1980)| 10,64,TIME TO CHANGE PURCHASE PRICE,951,1576,65,20,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 10,65,NORMAL SUPPLY,507,1562,52,15,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,66,65,258,1,0,0,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(529,1583)| 10,67,relative supply,753,1573,49,20,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,68,67,32,1,0,45,16,3,64,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(789,1502)| 10,69,capacity use,1242,2060,56,15,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,70,69,34,1,0,43,16,3,0,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1162,2126)| 12,71,0,243,1068,5,5,2,3,0,4,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,128-128-192,|12||0-0-0 1,72,56,71,33,0,0,14,3,64,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(246,1191)| 10,73,Logging Teams Desired,1371,2223,61,29,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11||0-0-255 1,74,33,73,1,0,43,0,2,128,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1473,2258)| 1,75,73,43,1,0,43,14,3,192,0,0-255-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1276,2332)| 1,76,33,43,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1370,2356)| 10,77,TIME NEEDED TO INCREASE TEAMS,1109,2434,61,19,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,78,77,44,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1212,2429)| 12,79,0,615,2355,6,6,2,3,0,5,-1,0,0,0,92-92-92,92-92-92,|12||0-0-0 10,80,effect of availability on logging costs,2052,1886,78,26,8,3,0,42,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|10||255-0-0 1,81,80,38,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1877,1827)| 10,82,NOMINAL LOGGING COSTS,1682,1882,38,27,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,83,71,150,1,0,43,14,11,0,0,0-128-0,|16||0-0-0,1|(830,498)| 10,84,MARKET PRICE OF WOOD PRODUCTS,1051,1300,62,15,8,3,0,40,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|8|BU|0-0-0 10,85,Wood Processing Capacity,543,1015,71,40,3,3,0,4,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-128,|12||0-0-0 12,86,48,307,1021,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,87,92,85,4,0,43,22,3,0,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(432,1022)| 1,88,92,86,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(348,1022)| 12,89,48,759,1028,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,90,94,89,4,0,0,22,3,0,0,255-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(723,1025)| 1,91,94,85,100,0,45,22,3,128,0,255-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(650,1025)| 11,92,48,386,1022,6,9,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,93,building mills,386,1056,53,23,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 11,94,1660,692,1025,6,9,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,95,scrapping mills,692,1063,56,27,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,96,desired mill capacity,453,1303,52,29,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11||0-0-255 1,97,96,101,1,0,43,16,3,0,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(365,1245)| 1,98,85,101,1,0,45,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(492,1167)| 10,99,effect of relative product profitability on desired mill capacity,563,1413,87,27,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,100,99,96,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(466,1363)| 10,101,change in mill capacity needed,334,1189,82,27,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,102,101,93,1,0,43,16,3,0,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(321,1113)| 10,103,TIME NEEDED TO BUILD MILLS,421,875,57,15,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,104,103,92,1,0,45,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(376,939)| 1,105,84,117,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1118,1244)| 1,106,85,96,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(530,1244)| 1,107,85,95,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(616,1072)| 10,108,LIFETIME,668,945,42,12,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,109,108,94,1,0,45,0,2,128,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(704,986)| 10,110,NORMAL PRODUCT PROFIT MARGIN,977,1238,68,22,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,111,110,112,1,0,45,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(1017,1161)| 10,112,relative profitability of products,1032,1089,85,32,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,113,112,96,1,0,43,16,3,65,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(560,1314)| 1,114,112,15,1,0,43,14,3,64,0,0-192-192,|12||0-0-0,1|(1013,1041)| 1,115,95,93,1,0,43,2,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(442,1082)| 1,116,85,13,1,0,0,16,3,64,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(622,919)| 10,117,profit margin due to log price,1134,1186,73,29,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,118,117,112,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,0-192-192,|12||0-0-0,1|(1061,1139)| 10,119,M3 Currently on each ha of Forest Land,526,1928,71,51,3,3,0,20,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-128,|11|B|0-0-0 12,120,48,206,1930,10,8,0,3,0,24,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|0-0-0 1,121,123,119,4,0,43,23,3,0,0,128-192-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(388,1928)| 1,122,123,120,68,0,0,22,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(263,1928)| 11,123,48,316,1928,6,9,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,124,regeneration,316,1961,63,21,40,3,0,24,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|0-0-0 12,125,48,843,1928,10,8,0,3,0,24,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|0-0-0 1,126,128,125,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(796,1933)| 1,127,128,119,100,0,45,22,11,128,0,0-0-255,|14||0-0-0,1|(672,1933)| 11,128,48,753,1933,6,9,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,129,harvesting,753,1953,47,11,40,3,0,24,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|0-0-0 10,130,MAX STANDING STOCK,368,2084,50,15,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8|B|0-0-0 10,131,effect of stock ratio on regeneration,263,2181,88,26,8,3,0,24,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|0-0-0 1,132,131,124,1,0,43,14,11,0,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(254,2023)| 10,133,initial stock,508,1858,51,11,8,3,0,18,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|160-160-160 10,134,function of effect that stock ratio has on regeneration rate,132,2094,73,26,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,135,134,131,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(149,2191)| 10,136,stock ratio,461,2183,46,11,8,3,0,24,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|0-0-0 1,137,136,131,1,0,45,14,11,0,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(373,2230)| 1,138,119,136,1,0,43,14,11,0,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(512,2090)| 1,139,130,136,1,0,45,0,10,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(452,2120)| 10,140,MAX REGENERATION RATE,136,2001,59,23,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8|B|0-0-0 1,141,140,124,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(210,1997)| 1,142,119,124,1,0,43,14,11,0,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(414,2037)| 1,143,119,129,1,0,0,2,3,64,0,255-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(682,1981)| 10,144,projected continuous amount cut per ha,823,2096,89,31,8,3,0,18,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|B|128-0-0 1,145,144,129,1,0,43,15,3,128,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(769,2016)| 10,146,HA AVAILABLE,883,2274,45,31,3,3,0,12,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|8||0-0-0 1,147,146,144,1,0,45,2,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(818,2170)| 10,148,availability of trees for harvest,1981,2299,78,21,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,149,34,144,1,0,43,15,3,0,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(891,2159)| 12,150,0,1171,528,8,8,2,3,0,4,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,128-128-192,|12||0-0-0 1,151,150,165,1,0,0,14,3,64,0,0-128-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(1431,580)| 12,152,0,1151,588,54,12,8,4,0,18,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|I|160-160-160 from supply 10,153,Current Domestic Log Purchase Price,1236,1517,70,52,3,3,0,4,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-0,|11||0-0-0 12,154,48,981,1522,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,155,157,153,4,0,43,22,3,0,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(1130,1522)| 1,156,157,154,68,0,0,22,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1037,1522)| 11,157,48,1089,1522,5,7,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,158,changing field price,1089,1556,50,27,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 10,159,field price difference,1076,1417,48,26,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,160,153,36,1,0,43,15,3,0,0,64-160-98,|11||0-0-0,1|(1249,1644)| 1,161,153,159,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1163,1414)| 1,162,32,159,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(994,1393)| 1,163,159,157,1,0,43,14,3,64,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(1060,1451)| 1,164,64,158,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1022,1620)| 10,165,domestic log supply,1711,677,49,25,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,166,165,19,1,0,45,14,3,64,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(1745,885)| 1,167,49,44,1,0,0,2,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1447,2502)| 10,168,foreign domestic price difference,1628,1534,75,31,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,169,Foreign Demand for Indonesian Logs,2450,877,74,47,3,3,0,36,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-255-0,Arial|12||0-0-0 12,170,48,2162,883,10,8,0,3,0,32,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|12||0-0-0 1,171,173,169,4,0,0,22,3,0,0,128-0-128,|12||0-0-0,1|(2324,884)| 1,172,173,170,68,0,0,22,3,0,0,128-0-128,|12||0-0-0,1|(2217,884)| 11,173,48,2267,884,5,7,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,174,changing foreign demand,2267,914,74,22,40,3,0,32,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|12||0-0-0 10,175,foreign demand gap,2130,1046,64,27,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,176,175,174,1,0,43,14,3,64,0,128-0-128,|12||0-0-0,1|(2166,977)| 10,177,TIME NEEDED TO CHANGE FOREIGN DEMAND,2067,942,67,23,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,178,177,174,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(2163,936)| 10,179,NORMAL EXPORT PRICE,2450,1247,61,17,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||0-0-0 10,180,effect of export price on foreign demand,2165,1306,85,21,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,181,179,180,1,0,45,12,3,0,0,128-0-128,|12||0-0-0,1|(2304,1311)| 1,182,180,206,1,0,45,14,3,64,0,128-0-128,|12||0-0-0,1|(2113,1224)| 10,183,effect of export demand on price function,2809,957,62,27,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 10,184,Current Log Export Price,2362,1408,63,35,3,3,0,4,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|12||0-0-0 12,185,48,2635,1406,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,186,188,184,4,0,0,22,1,0,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2466,1406)| 1,187,188,185,68,0,0,22,3,0,0,128-0-128,|12||0-0-0,1|(2571,1406)| 11,188,48,2512,1406,5,7,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,189,changing log export price,2512,1445,54,21,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,190,184,180,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2215,1366)| 10,191,effect of price on demand function,2305,1202,61,18,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,192,191,180,1,0,0,12,3,64,0,128-0-128,|12||0-0-0,1|(2234,1272)| 10,193,relative export demand,2613,969,65,22,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,194,193,196,1,0,43,14,3,64,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2654,1019)| 1,195,183,196,1,0,0,12,3,64,0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0,1|(2701,1030)| 10,196,effect of export demand on export price,2675,1086,82,33,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,197,196,201,1,0,43,14,3,64,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2704,1151)| 10,198,TIME NEEDED FOR EXP PRICE CHANGE TO BE REALIZED,2757,1371,78,24,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,199,198,189,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(2627,1445)| 1,200,169,193,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2554,918)| 10,201,adjusted log export price,2694,1216,57,27,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,202,export price difference,2621,1325,59,28,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,203,201,202,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2665,1271)| 1,204,184,202,1,0,45,12,3,64,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2441,1353)| 1,205,202,188,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2563,1373)| 10,206,foreign demand adjusted for price,2100,1152,83,29,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,207,169,175,1,0,0,12,3,64,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2319,1041)| 1,208,206,175,1,0,43,14,3,64,0,128-0-128,|12||0-0-0,1|(2102,1100)| 1,209,179,201,1,0,45,12,3,0,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2571,1175)| 10,210,BASIC FOREIGN DEMAND FOR LOGS,1986,1271,67,27,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,211,210,206,1,0,0,12,1,64,0,128-0-128,|11||0-0-0,1|(2056,1223)| 12,212,0,2430,1101,84,84,4,4,0,11,-1,0,0,0,160-160-160,0-0-0,|16||192-192-192 Foreign Demand & Export Price - 1,213,184,168,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,192-128-192,|11||0-0-0,1|(2020,1564)| 10,214,Current Log Export Price,2195,642,73,30,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|11||128-128-128 10,215,export price ratio,2038,499,48,26,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,216,214,215,1,0,43,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(2103,577)| 10,217,effect of pricing on amount exported,1949,568,47,34,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 12,218,0,734,1175,95,95,4,4,0,27,-1,0,0,0,192-192-192,0-0-0,|16|I|192-192-192 Processing Capacity and Profitability - 12,219,0,1296,1021,110,110,4,4,0,27,-1,0,0,0,192-192-192,0-0-0,|16|I|192-192-192 Domestic Demand and Log Price - 12,220,0,934,1749,94,94,4,4,0,27,-1,0,0,0,192-192-192,0-0-0,|16|I|192-192-192 Log Supply and Profitability of Harvest - 12,221,0,1143,2299,98,98,4,4,0,27,-1,0,0,0,192-192-192,0-0-0,|16|I|192-192-192 Logging Profitability and Logging Teams - 12,222,0,1407,2644,91,91,5,4,0,27,-1,0,0,0,192-192-192,0-0-0,|16|I|192-192-192 Tree Availability and Logging Costs - 1,223,153,24,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1344,1284)| 12,224,48,1505,1470,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,225,227,153,4,0,0,22,3,0,0,128-64-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(1349,1470)| 1,226,227,224,68,0,0,22,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1448,1470)| 11,227,48,1397,1470,5,7,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,228,changing price from demand,1397,1500,61,20,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,229,153,168,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1486,1695)| 1,230,153,25,1,0,45,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1294,1390)| 1,231,153,117,1,0,45,14,3,64,0,64-160-98,|11||0-0-0,1|(1190,1305)| 10,232,Current Domestic Log Purchase Price,2061,731,85,33,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|11||128-128-128 1,233,232,215,1,0,45,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(2062,586)| 12,234,48,1505,1555,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,235,237,153,4,0,0,22,3,0,0,192-128-192,|11||0-0-0,1|(1351,1555)| 1,236,237,234,68,0,0,22,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1450,1555)| 11,237,48,1401,1555,5,7,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,238,changing price from foreign demand,1401,1584,82,20,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,239,153,32,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1132,1348)| 1,240,168,237,1,0,43,14,3,0,0,192-128-192,|11||0-0-0,1|(1496,1522)| 10,241,FOREIGN PRICE CHANGE DELAY,1416,1660,62,20,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,242,241,238,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1478,1624)| 10,243,EXPORT BAN EFFECT step,1968,281,62,21,8,3,0,18,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|128-0-64 10,244,effect of export fraction on foreign price effect,1810,1085,66,27,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 10,245,fraction of supply exported,1881,701,73,31,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,246,effect that export fraction has on the effect of export price,1772,1292,103,30,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,247,245,246,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1924,1022)| 1,248,246,168,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1708,1461)| 1,249,244,246,1,0,0,0,3,64,0,255-0-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(1799,1199)| 1,250,150,245,1,0,45,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1617,549)| 10,251,log exports,1815,453,49,20,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,252,150,251,1,0,0,15,3,64,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(1482,426)| 1,253,251,165,1,0,0,14,3,64,0,192-128-192,|11||0-0-0,1|(1812,548)| 1,254,251,245,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1883,589)| 1,255,215,251,1,0,43,0,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1920,455)| 1,256,217,251,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1911,499)| 1,257,251,193,1,0,45,15,11,128,0,192-128-192,|16||0-0-0,1|(2490,637)| 10,258,adjusted normal supply,638,1584,40,35,3,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11||0-0-255 1,259,56,258,1,0,0,0,2,65,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(646,1647)| 1,260,258,67,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(681,1514)| 10,261,EFFECT OF ILLEGAL ARRANGEMENTS ON LOGGING COSTS,2231,1724,96,30,8,3,0,18,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|128-0-64 1,262,261,299,1,0,45,14,3,0,0,128-0-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(2092,1713)| 12,263,0,496,336,227,110,3,4,0,28,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-192-128,|20|B|0-0-0 Modeling the Effects of a Log Export Ban in Indonesia 12,264,0,493,473,117,29,3,4,0,12,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-192-128,|14||0-0-0 Richard G. Dudley 12,265,0,2445,234,137,36,8,4,0,4,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|11||0-0-0 Note: To create an "export ban" change this to an effect between 0 and .99. 10,266,BAN EFFECT,2054,204,62,16,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,267,266,243,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(2005,244)| 12,268,0,578,1374,40,9,10,4,0,13,3,0,0,0,255-0-0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0 entrepreneurial 12,269,0,486,1703,26,8,10,4,0,13,3,0,0,0,255-0-0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0 .25 12,270,0,1562,2228,15,9,10,4,0,13,3,0,0,0,255-0-0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0 .50 12,271,0,2816,918,27,11,10,4,0,13,3,0,0,0,255-0-0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1.5 max 12,272,0,1559,1008,36,14,10,4,0,13,3,0,0,0,255-0-0,255-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1.5 max 10,273,LOG SUPPLY SMOOTH TIME,487,1732,54,20,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,274,273,56,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(610,1745)| 10,275,DESIRED TEAM SMOOTH TIME,1562,2251,52,16,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,276,275,73,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1465,2204)| 10,277,DESIRED CAPACITY SMOOTH TIME,405,1429,66,24,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,278,277,96,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(440,1367)| 10,279,REPLACEMENT TEAM SMOOTH TIME,1167,2496,52,24,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 10,280,REPLACEMENT MILL SMOOTH TIME,502,929,54,25,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,281,280,92,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(425,947)| 10,282,NORMAL SUPPLY SMOOTH TIME,600,1491,59,16,8,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,283,282,258,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(580,1512)| 12,284,0,1505,1911,76,27,8,4,0,12,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|10||0-0-0 Note: This could also be a smooth of past values. 12,285,0,1982,1239,27,11,10,4,0,13,3,0,0,0,255-0-0,255-0-0,|10||0-0-0 steady 10,286,normal profitability of logging,1502,1839,60,33,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,287,286,58,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1414,1858)| 1,288,82,38,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1744,1879)| 10,289,effect of export price on ban effectiveness,2194,305,68,36,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,290,215,289,1,0,43,13,10,0,0,-1--1--1,|16||0-0-0,1|(2184,384)| 1,291,289,243,1,0,45,13,10,0,0,-1--1--1,|16||0-0-0,1|(2075,272)| 10,292,price vs ban effectiveness LK,2382,412,51,32,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-0-0 1,293,292,289,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(2330,328)| 10,294,ON OFF for price effect,2506,375,40,40,2,3,0,8,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|8||0-0-0 1,295,294,289,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(2393,292)| 12,296,0,582,115,79,28,8,4,0,28,-1,0,4,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|14|I|0-0-0 click for model run page 10,297,ON OFF illegal logging,2240,1831,49,49,2,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,298,297,299,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(2068,1765)| 10,299,illegal logging effect,1988,1768,58,21,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,300,299,38,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1882,1765)| 10,301,initial stock,1712,1995,57,12,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|11||128-128-128 10,302,FINAL YEAR,653,2054,47,10,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-128-0 1,303,302,129,1,0,0,2,11,64,0,255-128-0,|10||255-128-0,1|(718,2020)| 10,304,END YEAR,1486,2528,42,10,8,3,0,10,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|10||255-128-0 1,305,304,49,1,0,0,2,3,64,0,255-128-0,|10||255-128-0,1|(1560,2513)| 12,306,0,2646,367,97,27,8,4,0,12,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|10||0-0-0 Turn on for feedback effect of price on effectiveness of export ban. 10,307,fraction price change due to illegal activities,2318,1616,92,21,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,308,307,261,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(2177,1630)| 10,309,EXPORT BAN EFFECT ramp,1759,199,64,21,8,3,0,18,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|128-0-64 1,310,266,318,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(2011,140)| 1,311,289,309,1,0,0,13,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||128-0-64,1|(2050,46)| 1,312,243,314,1,0,0,14,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1842,288)| 1,313,309,314,1,0,0,13,3,64,0,255-0-255,|11||128-0-64,1|(1749,260)| 10,314,type of effect,1776,327,54,12,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,315,effect switch,1573,275,36,36,2,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,316,315,314,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1656,262)| 1,317,314,251,1,0,0,14,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1770,373)| 10,318,ramp ban effect,1905,139,40,21,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,319,318,309,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1841,151)| 10,320,ramp length,1879,218,33,20,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,321,320,318,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1913,184)| 1,322,128,362,1,0,43,16,3,0,0,0-128-0,|11||128-0-64,1|(744,1890)| 1,323,146,362,1,0,43,2,2,128,0,-1--1--1,|11||128-0-64,1|(697,1906)| 1,324,119,79,33,0,0,15,3,64,0,92-92-92,|11||128-0-64,1|(555,2161)| 1,325,79,148,1,0,0,15,3,64,0,92-92-92,|11||128-0-64,1|(1636,2745)| 10,326,relative availability of trees for harvest,1884,2048,87,21,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,327,301,326,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1776,2049)| 1,328,148,326,1,0,0,15,1,64,0,92-92-92,|11||0-0-0,1|(1990,2207)| 1,329,326,38,1,0,0,15,1,64,0,92-92-92,|11||0-0-0,1|(1818,1936)| 12,330,48,1168,1771,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,331,333,330,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1171,1711)| 1,332,333,153,68,0,0,22,2,0,0,-1--1--1,|11||0-0-0,1|(1171,1608)| 11,333,48,1171,1654,8,6,33,3,0,0,2,0,0,0 10,334,changing due to ceiling price,1107,1654,56,37,40,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|255-0-255 1,335,153,333,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1206,1623)| 10,336,price of alternate sources,1087,1788,52,32,8,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11|B|255-0-255 1,337,336,334,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1071,1722)| 1,338,64,334,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(990,1630)| 10,339,max timber harvest per year,1696,2196,69,21,8,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11||255-0-255 10,340,HA AVAILABLE,1823,2124,51,18,8,2,0,11,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|10||128-128-128 1,341,340,339,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1741,2142)| 10,342,years to harvest remaining timber,1772,2301,70,21,8,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11||255-0-255 1,343,342,339,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1789,2233)| 1,344,148,339,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1923,2229)| 1,345,339,73,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1587,2158)| 12,346,48,665,2270,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0 1,347,349,346,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(712,2269)| 1,348,349,146,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(799,2269)| 11,349,48,755,2269,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0 10,350,losing ha from forest,755,2306,58,29,40,3,0,2,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11||255-0-255 1,351,136,349,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(668,2193)| 10,352,effect of stock ratio on loss of forest,877,2455,65,32,8,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11||255-0-0 1,353,352,350,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(757,2357)| 1,354,146,350,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(827,2344)| 10,355,loss of land effect,836,2539,40,40,2,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,356,355,350,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(742,2393)| 10,357,initial ha,889,2228,35,12,8,3,0,2,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|11||128-128-128 12,358,0,1487,2047,26,11,10,0,0,5,-1,0,0,0,255-0-0,255-0-0,|11||0-0-0 12,359,0,2048,1853,36,10,10,0,0,5,-1,0,0,0,255-0-0,255-0-0,|11||0-0-0 12,360,0,2180,2051,40,20,8,0,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,361,0,493,527,114,23,3,4,0,4,-1,1,0,0,0-0-0,255-192-128,|11||0-0-0 Version of 01 MAR 2004 10,362,amount of timber cut per year,735,1833,85,24,8,3,0,26,0,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|12|B|128-64-0 1,363,362,56,1,0,43,15,3,64,0,0-128-0,|11||0-0-0,1|(728,1788)| 12,364,0,756,116,75,28,8,4,0,28,-1,0,5,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|14|I|0-0-0 click for notes page 12,365,0,372,116,97,26,8,4,0,12,-1,0,3,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|14||0-0-0 click for effects on employment 12,366,0,181,114,62,26,8,4,0,12,-1,0,1,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|14||0-0-0 click for title page 1,367,13,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(1202,846)| 1,368,65,33,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(963,1972)| 1,369,165,85,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(1144,842)| 1,370,133,119,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(509,1866)| 1,371,357,146,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(889,2234)| 1,372,210,169,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(2200,1089)| 1,373,179,184,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,-1--1--1,,1|(2414,1313)| \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *effects on employment $192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|120,120 10,1,logging employment,640,243,65,28,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,2,m3 cut per person per year,371,307,93,31,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,3,2,1,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(482,237)| 10,4,projected amount of timber cut per year,228,218,100,30,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 1,5,4,1,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(435,147)| 12,6,0,416,83,236,3,3,4,0,3,3,3,0,0,128-0-64,0-0-0,|12||128-0-64 Logging Employment 10,7,adjusted demand,953,123,88,16,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,8,m3 processed per person per year,896,220,77,28,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 10,9,milling employment,1030,327,57,27,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,10,8,9,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(972,239)| 1,11,7,9,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1047,222)| 12,12,0,1013,79,230,3,3,4,0,3,3,3,0,0,128-0-64,0-0-0,|12||128-0-64 Milling Employment 10,13,total employment,1036,609,56,24,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0 1,14,1,13,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(806,361)| 1,15,9,13,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(1011,392)| 12,16,0,392,636,331,235,3,60,0,0,1,0,0,0 EMPLOYMENT_IN_THE_LOGGIN 12,17,0,100,56,47,19,8,4,0,28,-1,0,2,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|10|I|0-0-0 click for main page 12,18,0,100,104,46,22,8,4,0,28,-1,0,4,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|10|I|0-0-0 click for run page 12,19,0,1204,459,170,96,8,4,0,4,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|12||192-255-192 Note: milling employment includes only rough milling as carried out in the small scale mills. Does not include any further processing (e.g. furniture etc.). 12,20,0,1225,658,40,20,8,0,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,21,0,104,151,77,19,8,4,0,12,-1,0,1,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|10||0-0-0 click for title page \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *RUN CONTROLS $192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|120,120 12,1,4982104,391,339,328,249,3,60,0,0,1,0,0,0 A_D_SUPPLY_DEMAND_! 12,2,5506506,1053,339,331,250,3,60,0,0,1,0,0,0 A_FOREIGN_SUPPLY_AND_DEMAN 12,3,3802594,392,783,328,192,3,60,0,0,1,0,0,0 A_EX_DOM_PRICES_! 10,4,NORMAL SUPPLY SMOOTH TIME,843,770,90,22,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,5,DESIRED CAPACITY SMOOTH TIME,841,865,77,33,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,6,DESIRED TEAM SMOOTH TIME,1081,771,81,22,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 12,7,0,120,65,60,22,8,4,0,20,-1,0,2,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|12|I|0-0-0 click for main view 10,8,TIME NEEDED FOR EXP PRICE CHANGE TO BE REALIZED,1089,1036,119,33,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,9,BAN EFFECT,1348,630,87,18,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,10,TIME NEEDED TO BUILD MILLS,841,971,84,22,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,11,ON OFF illegal logging,1342,757,72,22,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 12,12,6555080,391,1178,330,200,3,60,0,0,1,0,0,0 TIMBER_CUT 10,13,LIFETIME,833,1046,57,12,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,14,TIME NEEDED TO INCREASE TEAMS,1083,869,93,22,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,15,fraction price change due to illegal activities,1350,838,93,33,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 10,16,loss of land effect,1357,1015,55,22,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 12,17,0,256,65,58,22,8,4,0,28,-1,0,5,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|10|I|0-0-0 click for notes page 12,18,0,411,62,77,19,8,4,0,12,-1,0,1,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|10||0-0-0 click for title page 12,19,0,1358,812,111,90,3,4,0,41,3,0,0,0,255-0-0,0-0-0,Arial|14||0-0-0 illegal logging -- use together 12,20,0,1158,1219,384,36,3,4,0,9,-1,0,0,0,255-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-0-0 These and many more controls are also available on the main model page when in Synthesim mode. 10,21,initial ha,1359,1096,48,12,8,2,0,3,-1,0,0,0,128-128-128,0-0-0,|12||128-128-128 12,22,0,1358,1059,104,92,3,4,0,1,3,0,0,0,255-0-0,0-0-0,|12||0-0-0 hectares of forest land 12,23,0,1471,1280,60,22,8,4,0,20,-1,0,2,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|12|I|0-0-0 click for main view \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *NOTES $192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|120,120 12,1,0,430,146,145,39,8,4,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-0-0 Red inverted triangles may indicate normal values for the variables indicated. 12,2,0,243,183,40,20,10,0,0,4,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,255-0-0,|12||0-0-0 12,3,0,423,405,115,39,8,4,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-0-0 Circles indicate switches for certain test effects. 12,4,0,247,401,35,35,2,0,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,5,0,433,246,163,48,8,4,0,8,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-0-0 For some lookup functions alternate curves used in the paper are provided in an Excel file. 12,6,0,435,751,184,52,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||255-0-255 pink text indicates structural additions made, especially for some extreme conditions. These were not in the Palermo version. 12,7,0,424,561,84,26,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||255-0-0 red text indicates lookup functions 12,8,0,830,214,50,34,8,0,0,0,-1,0,0,0 12,9,0,1072,179,256,65,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-128-0 Turn on an EXPORT BAN by setting "ban effect" to 0.9 on the control panel. Make sure that "effect switch" is zero to set ramp impelmentation of the export ban. If the effect switch is 1 then you will get step (sudden) implementation. 12,10,0,1069,389,235,65,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-128-0 To turn on ILLEGAL LOGGING the model user must activate the illegal logging switch ("on off illegal logging") and also set the effect of illegal logging ("fraction price change due to illegal activities") to non-zero.... e.g. -0.03 per year. 12,11,0,1134,1020,337,63,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-128-0 To turn on the effect of CONVERSION OF FOREST LANDS to other uses as the forest becomes degraded turn on "loss of land effect" (see figure 9 left-hand curves). Also the user can adjust the lookup function "effect of stock ratio on loss of forest". 12,12,0,1102,795,278,59,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-128-0 The model is set up to started in equilibrium. In order to simulate CHRONIC OVER HARVEST at the start of a model run, make the forest smaller by setting "initial ha" to a value smaller than one million ha . 12,13,0,1074,516,250,52,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-128-0 This will cause logging costs to decrease by this percent for a default of five years and then stabilize at the new level ... other things being equal. 12,14,0,1088,621,259,46,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-128-0 Note that in this model "illegal logging" causes only decreased logging costs. No other effects of illegal logging are modeled here. 12,15,0,1112,879,265,27,8,4,0,10,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14||0-128-0 In Figure 8 and 9 "initial ha" was set to 500 ha. 12,16,0,192,58,79,21,8,4,0,28,-1,0,2,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|10|I|0-0-0 click for model page 12,17,0,408,57,79,21,8,4,0,28,-1,0,4,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|10|I|0-0-0 click for run controls 12,18,0,616,60,77,19,8,4,0,12,-1,0,1,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|10||0-0-0 click for title page 12,19,0,462,1028,246,34,8,4,0,20,-1,0,6,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|12|I|0-0-0 click here for more notes on running the model \\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names V300 Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored *more notes $192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|120,120 12,1,0,239,48,105,27,8,4,0,20,-1,0,5,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|12|I|0-0-0 back to notes page 12,2,0,1215,150,273,32,8,4,0,12,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|14||0-0-0 Using .cin files to re-create model runs 12,3,0,1217,302,257,50,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Different model runs can be saved as cin files containing the values for changed (from default) model constants or lookups. 12,4,0,1225,207,201,29,8,4,0,6,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|12||128-0-0 This approach can be used with Vensim model reader or with Vensim professional and above. 12,5,0,1215,408,260,64,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 To do this start Synthesim (running icon with lines) then make the changes you want in the model , then while still running Synthesim click on the disk icon create a filename and save. 12,6,0,1214,530,257,54,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 To recall a saved cin file containing saved changes from a previous run, start Synthesim and click on the folder icon and select the file you wish to open. 12,7,0,1222,644,247,65,8,4,0,26,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,0-0-0,|14|B|0-128-0 Several cin files have been already been saved. These hold the values of model parameters corresponding to figures in the paper. 12,8,0,1227,724,194,19,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Note: cin files can be viewed as text files. 12,9,0,394,149,215,36,8,4,0,12,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|14||0-0-0 Saving model runs 12,10,0,376,210,107,13,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Run Synthesim. 12,11,0,404,253,201,19,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Choose a new run name in the box -- top center. 12,12,0,404,310,224,24,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Make changes in parameters as needed. 12,13,0,413,387,283,45,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 With Synthesim still running select the runner plus disk icon just to the left of the run name. Rename if necessary. Save the run. 12,14,0,516,49,96,27,8,4,0,20,-1,0,4,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|12|I|0-0-0 go to run page 12,15,0,415,507,209,27,8,4,0,12,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|14||0-0-0 Looking at saved model runs 12,16,0,418,581,238,24,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Various saved model runs can be selected for viewing. 12,17,0,418,631,228,22,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 First click on the round the icon toward the top right. 12,18,0,416,688,209,29,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Then click on the "datasets" tab. You will see all the data sets that have been saved listed. 12,19,0,428,777,270,59,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Use the arrow buttons to place datasets into the loaded or available boxes. Those in the loaded Info box will be visible when the model components are selected on the main view. 12,20,0,446,879,327,38,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Note: only the first dataset will be shown in certain special graphs where no dataset name has been specified -- such as on the model run page. 12,21,0,462,982,324,51,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 To see graphs of model components: go to the main view page, click on a component of interest, then select the graph icon to the left. 12,22,0,773,46,95,25,8,4,0,20,-1,0,2,0,0-0-0,255-192-0,|12|I|0-0-0 go to main view 12,23,0,1214,801,244,25,8,4,0,12,-1,0,0,0,0-0-0,192-255-192,|14||0-0-0 Looking at save the graphs 12,24,0,1217,870,253,43,8,4,0,0,-1,0,0,0 Several graphs were saved and can be recalled. As set up these will display only the currently selected dataset. 12,25,0,1217,953,223,53,8,4,0,0,0,0,0,0 These can be accessed by selecting the round icon (top right) and clicking on the graphs tab. Double-click the graph name for its display. ///---\\\ :GRAPH A_EX_DOM_PRICES_! :TITLE Detail of Log Prices and Fraction of Supply Exported :SCALE :VAR Current Log Export Price :LINE-WIDTH 2 :VAR Current Domestic Log Purchase Price :LINE-WIDTH 3 :SCALE :VAR fraction of supply exported :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1 :LINE-WIDTH 2 :GRAPH A_D_SUPPLY_DEMAND_! :TITLE Domestic Demand and Processing Capacity :SOFT-BOUNDS :SCALE :VAR Wood Processing Capacity :LINE-WIDTH 3 :VAR Domestic Demand for Logs :LINE-WIDTH 2 :GRAPH A_FOREIGN_SUPPLY_AND_DEMAN :TITLE Foreign Demand and Log Exports :SCALE :VAR Foreign Demand for Indonesian Logs :VAR log exports :VAR foreign demand adjusted for price :GRAPH TIMBER_CUT :TITLE Amount of Timber Cut :Y-DIV 4 :SCALE :VAR amount of timber cut per year :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 6e+006 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :GRAPH EMPLOYMENT_IN_THE_LOGGIN :TITLE Employment in the Logging and Milling Sectors :SCALE :VAR logging employment :VAR milling employment :VAR total employment :GRAPH FOREST_COVER :TITLE Forest Cover :SCALE :VAR M3 Currently on each ha of Forest Land :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 300 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :SCALE :VAR HA AVAILABLE :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 1e+006 :GRAPH 4_B_EFFECT_OF_BAN_TEAMS_ETC :TITLE Effect of a log export ban on logging teams and timber cutting :X-MIN 2000 :X-MAX 2012 :WIDTH 7 :HEIGHT 5 :SCALE :VAR Logging Teams :Y-MIN 1e+006 :Y-MAX 5e+006 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :VAR amount of timber cut per year :LINE-WIDTH 3 :SCALE :VAR potential profit from log harvest :Y-MIN 0 :Y-MAX 50 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :GRAPH B_DEMAND_AND_PRICE :TITLE B_DEMAND_AND_PRICE :Y-DIV 4 :WIDTH 7 :HEIGHT 5 :SCALE :VAR Foreign Demand for Indonesian Logs :Y-MIN 500000 :Y-MAX 4.5e+006 :LINE-WIDTH 3 :VAR Domestic Demand for Logs :LINE-WIDTH 3 :SCALE :VAR Current Log Export Price :LINE-WIDTH 3 :VAR Current Domestic Log Purchase Price :LINE-WIDTH 3 :GRAPH PRICE_VS__LOG_SUPPLY :X-AXIS Current Domestic Log Purchase Price :Y-DIV 6 :DOTS :SCALE :VAR Supply of Logs :L<%^E!@ 1:xxx.vdf 1:with ban.vdf 9:xxx 23:0 15:0,0,0,0,0,0 19:55,1 27:2, 34:0, 4:Time 5:amount of timber cut per year 24:1995 25:2055 26:2055